Upset Bound

GOOD:

Maryland: How scary is Maryland? Just ask Maryland. They know all to well who they can beat, as well as who they can't. The Terps powered themselves to two huge wins against Duke, sweeping them for the first time in... a long time. Just as telling, or as surprising, is the sweeping handed to them by the Clemson Tigers. A close loss coming back against North Carolina might have lifted them to a 5 seed, but 7 or 8 is where they will land. Maryland is just as likely to upset one of the Big Boys as they are to get smacked in the first round. But at least they have a chance.
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Pacific: 19 straight wins isn't anything to gawk at. The Tigers played well against the Jayhawks in December, and aside from a glitch against San Francisco, they've been rock solid. Their 16-0 conference schedule looks good, even though the Big West isn't much. Pacific has maximized Christian Maraker and the great-name duo of Doubley and Yango. Pacific could follow their confidence to a huge upset in March.
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Alabama: While I was a little disappointed with their performance against Kentucky, the Crimson Tide still get me excited. The tall athletic frontcourt of Alabama can cause fits against any team in the land. They've lost a few lately, but that only makes it easier to predict upsets. 'Bama has the skills to compete with anyone, and should find themselves in a close game against a top seed in the Sweet Sixteen.
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Georgia Tech: I'm pretty sure G-Tech will pull off a spot in the Tourney. If they don't make it, they can look at recent heart breakers to Kansas, NC State, and Duke (8 points combined). If they had beaten these three teams, there would be no question. A 5 seed might even be in the cards. If these Jackets do get the invite, watch out. They've underachieved all year, and they're the type of athletes who strive to succeed on the big stage. Remember last year? Jarrett Jack has been awesome. Look for him and Will Bynum to team up with dunk-happy Isma'il Muhammad to cause some cold sweats from top teams.
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Southern Illinois: Salukis? Yeah, that's a college mascot worth rooting for. Not that they need their mascot to get any extra votes. The Salukis are assured a spot. They will dominate their tourney like they did during the regular season. Big Boys beware. Star guard, Darren Brooks, averages nearly 15ppg, 5rpg, 5apg, and 3spg. He's good, to say the least. While grabbing 25 wins this year, the Salukis have yet to lose at home. If they can find a way to make themselves feel at home come The Big Dance, anything's possible.
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Utah: Besides having one of college basketball's best players in Andrew Bogut (a sweet name to go along with his 21ppg 12rpg and 2.5apg) the Utes also have a solid all around attack with 5 guys averaging 8 or more per game. Bogut has been mentioned as high as the number 1 pick in the NBA draft this year, and might just give his Utes a ride during the tourney. The Utes might have a little extra incentive as well. They are ranked as high as 15 in major polls and are slated in the 4- 6 seed spot.
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Pittsburgh: Relatively recent losses to Villanova, who's been playing much better, and UConn, who's been awesome of late, mark the only times Pitt has lost by more than 5 points all year. The Panthers have been a good tourney team over the last few years as well. Their tough D and solid gamers like Carl Krauser, my man Chevon Troutman, and Chris Taft give the Panthers some punch in close games. Recent West Virginia and UConn losses don't look that bad next to the 18 point trouncing of BC in Boston.
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BAD:

Texas Tech: Texas Tech slipped by Baylor tonight. I'm not joking. Baylor (1-14, 9-17) was down three and in position to tie when they turned the ball over and gave the Red Raiders the victory. There's a reason they're 1-14 in conference I guess. That doesn't let Texas Tech off the hook, though. This is the same type of thing that gets your team beat by West Southwestern Pennsylvania A&M&D in the first round of the Big Dance. Texas Tech isn't as good as their record, and I imagine they'll show that come Tourney time.
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Duke: Oh, Dukies. With the tumble of key player Sean Dockery, the Blue Devils look like a team playing on its last legs. JJ Reddick can be the best player in college hoops one night, then shoot 4-15 the next night, and he has plenty of "next nights". (See last week) Sean Dockery was Duke's defensive stopper, and one of, if not the most consistent Devil of all. His loss has undoubtedly given Coach K bad dreams. The Dukies got swept by the Terps this year, and have had near losses to more than a few poor teams. Duke could always surprise... (watch out Carolina), but a surprise happening to them seems much more likely at this point.
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Maryland: For the same reasons I listed above, Maryland makes this list as well. Don't question the coaching or the talent, but the inconsistency demands some print. Losses to NC State and Clemson twice look bad right about now.
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Wisconsin: Michigan State, Alabama, and Maryland are the Badgers top wins this season, which doesn't get me all that excited. They do tend to get the job done against teams they should beat, which gets them into the Big Dance, but how far will it allow them to stay there? The Badgers are a tough team with a couple good tough big bodies up front. The Badgers look like a 4 or a 5 seed right now, and everyone knows a couple from those 8 slots lays a first day egg.
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Louisville: Louisville has a couple awesome players. In fact they have 5 really good ones, led by Taquan Dean and Francisco Garcia. Ellis Myles is a rebound machine and Juan Diego Palacios gets his. Five guys average over 10ppg for the Cardinals. So why are they in this section? They play too many tight games with teams that would find it tough to win D-2 Tourneys. Losses to Iowa and Houston don't look all that good. Barely beating Florida, NC A&T, and UAB isn't too exciting either. All this being said, the Cardinals are still a very good ball club. Dean's case of Mono has something to do with my picking Rick Patino's crew to get upset. The Tourney can be exhausting; Mono won't help Dean recover quickly.
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Michigan State: Since December 11th the Spartans have won 17 games. In each of those 17 wins they've won by 11 or more. 3 of the 5 losses on the year were against Duke, Wisconsin, and Illinois. The latest loss against Indiana might have been a fluke. Indiana's hoping important people don't look at it that way. It's hard to say the Spartans don't deserve a top 3 seed, unless you look at their quality wins. Wait, what quality wins? Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa??? That's why I put them here. Come Tourney time there are some really good teams that sneak in at low seeds. The Spartans haven't really beaten a real good team all year. They have a solid group of players, but is that enough?
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